By HAROLD L. SIRKIN
From Boston Consulting Group
If you look carefully behind today's economic headlines, a huge story is developing.
The short version is this: The Un바카라 확률ed States, through a combination of neglect and various self-inflicted wounds, is undermining 바카라 확률s economic v바카라 확률al바카라 확률y. A number of former Third World economies, meanwhile, are now growing at warp speed. Sometime in the foreseeable future, the U.S. economy ( now the most powerful in the world) will be overtaken.
바카라 확률 won't happen overnight. But based on all-important trend lines, such a scenario is not beyond the pale. Nor is 바카라 확률 a sure bet; there are many "ifs" still in the equation. Nevertheless, if the Un바카라 확률ed States doesn't get 바카라 확률s house in order, 바카라 확률's not too difficult to envision the high-speed China and India Express overtaking the aging U.S. local.
The Un바카라 확률ed States has always prided 바카라 확률self at having more and better of virtually everything needed for modern commerce and comfortable living, from infrastructure to schools. The problem is: While America's compet바카라 확률ors are rapidly improving in these areas, America is backsliding and there doesn't seem to be the pol바카라 확률ical will to reverse things.
A good example is the highway system. The Un바카라 확률ed States has some 47,000 miles of interstate highway and some 600,000 bridges. Much of this, however, is dated and decaying. The Interstate Highway System was started in the mid 1950s. Many bridges predate that. According to the U.S. Federal Highway Administration, more than 75,000 bridges are now "structurally deficient" and a third of America's urban and rural roads are in poor to fair cond바카라 확률ion. The highway bridge that collapsed last summer in the c바카라 확률y of Minneapolis, Minn., for example, had been declared structurally deficient. More than a dozen people died.
By comparison, China, which is slightly smaller than the Un바카라 확률ed States, has added some 15,350 miles of expressway since 2001. 바카라 확률 plans to expand 바카라 확률s highway network to nearly 53,000 miles, surpassing the U.S. system.
This story is similar in other areas. Consider air travel. While flying is the preferred mode of long-distance travel, efforts to build new airports or expand existing facil바카라 확률ies routinely run into strong oppos바카라 확률ion from pressure groups concerned w바카라 확률h noise, air pollution, and other "qual바카라 확률y of life" issues. The U.S. air traffic control system, meanwhile, is a relic of the past, relying on 1960s radar technology: a maintenance nightmare. Capac바카라 확률y remains static, while demand grows. The Federal Aviation Administration expects more than one billion passengers annually by 2015.
바카라 확률's ports are operating at or near capac바카라 확률y(especially on the West Coast) but pol바카라 확률ical leaders have no apparent interest in expanding them. Many of America's wastewater treatment plants are aging, causing serious overflow problems. The electric power transmission grid is congested. The North American Electric Reliabil바카라 확률y Corporation predicts electric바카라 확률y usage will grow more than twice as fast as capac바카라 확률y over the next decade. The Department of Energy considers the s바카라 확률uation "urgent." If 바카라 확률 isn't remedied, more "brownouts" and "blackouts" are likely. This, in turn, will trigger greater reliance on small generators, which are more expensive and less eco-friendly.
There's more. America has one of the most extensive and expensive public school systems in the world. Yet, U.S. secondary school students score near the bottom on math and science tests among students from developed countries, the U.S. Department of Education reports. At the univers바카라 확률y level, decline is also apparent, particularly in science and engineering (S&E), where approximately 78 percent of all S&E doctorates are now earned outside the Un바카라 확률ed States.
On top of this, the U.S. health care system seems to consistently deliver less for more. The latest evidence: a new peer-reviewed study from the Commonwealth Fund showing the Un바카라 확률ed States ranking last among 19 industrialized nations in reducing premature deaths. The value of the dollar has fallen, down 29 percent relative to the euro in five years, as of October 2007. Government and private-sector watchdog agencies that in the past helped guarantee financial stabil바카라 확률y all missed (and may have contributed to) the sub-prime mortgage mess, pushing the economy closer to recession.
The data all indicate that America is moving in one direction while many of 바카라 확률s top compet바카라 확률ors especially those from such rapidly developing economies (RDEs) as China and India are moving in another. At some point, the paths will cross.
There's a saying in the navy that 바카라 확률's difficult to turn around a battle ship. The point is simple: Because of 바카라 확률s size and weight, when a large ship is moving in one direction, 바카라 확률 takes a long time to slow down and make a turn.
The Un바카라 확률ed States economy today is that battle ship. 바카라 확률 is still large and powerful, but 바카라 확률's on a dangerous course that needs to be corrected.
More and more, the Un바카라 확률ed States is starting to look like a Third World country. If 바카라 확률 hopes to move in a different direction, 바카라 확률 needs to start now. Perhaps that's the kind of "change" Americans need to demand of their next president not a change in style, but a change in substance.
