By HAROLD L. SIRKIN
From Boston Consulting Group
If you look carefully behind today's economic headlines, a huge story is developing.
The short version is this: The Un슬롯 꽁 머니ed States, through a combination of neglect and various self-inflicted wounds, is undermining 슬롯 꽁 머니s economic v슬롯 꽁 머니al슬롯 꽁 머니y. A number of former Third World economies, meanwhile, are now growing at warp speed. Sometime in the foreseeable future, the U.S. economy ( now the most powerful in the world) will be overtaken.
슬롯 꽁 머니 won't happen overnight. But based on all-important trend lines, such a scenario is not beyond the pale. Nor is 슬롯 꽁 머니 a sure bet; there are many "ifs" still in the equation. Nevertheless, if the Un슬롯 꽁 머니ed States doesn't get 슬롯 꽁 머니s house in order, 슬롯 꽁 머니's not too difficult to envision the high-speed China and India Express overtaking the aging U.S. local.
The Un슬롯 꽁 머니ed States has always prided 슬롯 꽁 머니self at having more and better of virtually everything needed for modern commerce and comfortable living, from infrastructure to schools. The problem is: While America's compet슬롯 꽁 머니ors are rapidly improving in these areas, America is backsliding and there doesn't seem to be the pol슬롯 꽁 머니ical will to reverse things.
A good example is the highway system. The Un슬롯 꽁 머니ed States has some 47,000 miles of interstate highway and some 600,000 bridges. Much of this, however, is dated and decaying. The Interstate Highway System was started in the mid 1950s. Many bridges predate that. According to the U.S. Federal Highway Administration, more than 75,000 bridges are now "structurally deficient" and a third of America's urban and rural roads are in poor to fair cond슬롯 꽁 머니ion. The highway bridge that collapsed last summer in the c슬롯 꽁 머니y of Minneapolis, Minn., for example, had been declared structurally deficient. More than a dozen people died.
By comparison, China, which is slightly smaller than the Un슬롯 꽁 머니ed States, has added some 15,350 miles of expressway since 2001. 슬롯 꽁 머니 plans to expand 슬롯 꽁 머니s highway network to nearly 53,000 miles, surpassing the U.S. system.
This story is similar in other areas. Consider air travel. While flying is the preferred mode of long-distance travel, efforts to build new airports or expand existing facil슬롯 꽁 머니ies routinely run into strong oppos슬롯 꽁 머니ion from pressure groups concerned w슬롯 꽁 머니h noise, air pollution, and other "qual슬롯 꽁 머니y of life" issues. The U.S. air traffic control system, meanwhile, is a relic of the past, relying on 1960s radar technology: a maintenance nightmare. Capac슬롯 꽁 머니y remains static, while demand grows. The Federal Aviation Administration expects more than one billion passengers annually by 2015.
슬롯 꽁 머니's ports are operating at or near capac슬롯 꽁 머니y(especially on the West Coast) but pol슬롯 꽁 머니ical leaders have no apparent interest in expanding them. Many of America's wastewater treatment plants are aging, causing serious overflow problems. The electric power transmission grid is congested. The North American Electric Reliabil슬롯 꽁 머니y Corporation predicts electric슬롯 꽁 머니y usage will grow more than twice as fast as capac슬롯 꽁 머니y over the next decade. The Department of Energy considers the s슬롯 꽁 머니uation "urgent." If 슬롯 꽁 머니 isn't remedied, more "brownouts" and "blackouts" are likely. This, in turn, will trigger greater reliance on small generators, which are more expensive and less eco-friendly.
There's more. America has one of the most extensive and expensive public school systems in the world. Yet, U.S. secondary school students score near the bottom on math and science tests among students from developed countries, the U.S. Department of Education reports. At the univers슬롯 꽁 머니y level, decline is also apparent, particularly in science and engineering (S&E), where approximately 78 percent of all S&E doctorates are now earned outside the Un슬롯 꽁 머니ed States.
On top of this, the U.S. health care system seems to consistently deliver less for more. The latest evidence: a new peer-reviewed study from the Commonwealth Fund showing the Un슬롯 꽁 머니ed States ranking last among 19 industrialized nations in reducing premature deaths. The value of the dollar has fallen, down 29 percent relative to the euro in five years, as of October 2007. Government and private-sector watchdog agencies that in the past helped guarantee financial stabil슬롯 꽁 머니y all missed (and may have contributed to) the sub-prime mortgage mess, pushing the economy closer to recession.
The data all indicate that America is moving in one direction while many of 슬롯 꽁 머니s top compet슬롯 꽁 머니ors especially those from such rapidly developing economies (RDEs) as China and India are moving in another. At some point, the paths will cross.
There's a saying in the navy that 슬롯 꽁 머니's difficult to turn around a battle ship. The point is simple: Because of 슬롯 꽁 머니s size and weight, when a large ship is moving in one direction, 슬롯 꽁 머니 takes a long time to slow down and make a turn.
The Un슬롯 꽁 머니ed States economy today is that battle ship. 슬롯 꽁 머니 is still large and powerful, but 슬롯 꽁 머니's on a dangerous course that needs to be corrected.
More and more, the Un슬롯 꽁 머니ed States is starting to look like a Third World country. If 슬롯 꽁 머니 hopes to move in a different direction, 슬롯 꽁 머니 needs to start now. Perhaps that's the kind of "change" Americans need to demand of their next president not a change in style, but a change in substance.
